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Lots of folks may not care if their risk of ruin is 1. You chose that as a way to include essentially all of a population as is common in statistics.

Except you are considering the wrong population. We want the population of all random walks that never go broke.

Using the former population for bankroll requirements and risk of ruin is mathematical nonsense. Before that it was well known to the blackjack community, having appeared in papers by George C.

It was surely known in mathematics before that as the general expression is important in financial math, and it can also be obtained from the Weiner process.

There is also an analytical short term ruin formula for risk of ruin in a finite number of hands. The confidence intervals in his graph have nothing to do with risk of ruin.

His graph is showing you a range of results assuming you can play through any drawdowns. IOW, if you lose your at some point, you can still keep playing, as if someone lent you additional funds.

The positive portion of the graph includes the times you lost your bankroll and then recovered to finish positive. The risk of ruin formula as correctly given by Pokerdope counts these instances as a failure.

A risk of ruin formula is not and cannot be based on confidence intervals. Attempting to use confidence intervals to compute risk of ruin is a well known blunder.

Here is a derivation of the risk of ruin formula Pokerdope gave which has been simplified to require nothing more than high school algebra:.

BTW, we developed a similar variance calculator on your site for tournaments which requires a different approach to risk of ruin.. It runs in R which is a platform for statistical computing which free and very easy to install.

Here is a link to the script. Thank you for answering my question. In your example of a 2. The risk of ruin and the necessary bankroll is calculated independently from the confidence interval.

BR is the required bankroll, R is the risk of ruin, Var is the variance which is the standard deviation squared, and WR is the winrate.

Using the example above with a win rate of 2. Do you have sophisticated guesses for the STD of 6-max five-card Omaha?

Maybe something like ? I noticed that the 20 random graphs in cg variance simulator almost always have one graph that is outside of the 2 std deviation line..

Is this a bug? Hello, anyone can explain what observed winrate is? We have winrate and observed winrate, any differences?

Am confused if the BB is big bet or big blind. I would assume it is big bet. The variance calc is complete non sense.

It would be correct if online poker would work with correct and real life daily math, but since it doesnt, any calculation is a fail.

If your ture winrate is 2. Hi Mitch, these is the complete overview of my calculations. Especially since, even though I am a small winner in my games, I am perpetually running below EV and my actual winnings should be much higher than they currently are.

Do you assume normal distribution? I always see people on the forums: Help explaining this would be greatly appreciated. Probability of running at or above observed win rate Probability of running below observed win rate You see, those tables were simulated at the distance over mil hands.

So the smaller is your sample the less chance for you will be to ruin. Could anybody explain me.. If I see this: Also HM2 has 2 different stats for std dev.

One is bb per hands and is as in examples. Another is just std dev. So the difference is like, eg, for midstack nlhe 65 vs 6.

You may put in the description than you use std dev per hands. Any chance you can create a simulator for live players? Thanks — this is just javascript, some mathematics and Google Charts https: First off this is excellent and clean!

Like what language you used and what sort of things went into making this. I currently am sending my Mental Game Coaching clients over to this website to learn about the true effect of variance in their game.

September 56 Comments By Primedope. Variance in numbers Below the first chart the Variance Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information: This number shows by how much your actual results will differ from the expected results on average.

Probability of loss after X hands: Probability of running at or above observed win rate …: If you entered an observed winrate , this number will show you the probability that you will experience a run at or above this winrate over the amount of hands.

Probability of running below observed win rate …: Too see how these stats can be used to your advantage in battle, check out the Best Attacker and Best Defender tools.

Also check out Buddy Stats to help you choose your perfect Pokemon buddy and Stardust Strategy to help you with this rare resource.

Huge thanks to trainer JarydC for getting the javascript for this across the line at the 11th hour, and to Ciuff and Nylonee for getting the ball rolling.

There can be many possible IVs that would produce the Pokemon you have. You are able to narrow down the Pokemon by levelling it up OR evolving it, and submitting the new details to this tool.

After your first search, use the "Refine" button instead of "Calculate". The "Refine" process will automatically identify if you evolved the mon species changed or if you powered it up and the powered up field is now set to "Yes".

But only one at a time. So these are a bit of a pain. Niantic rounds up those formulas above to 10 if they ever score below.

If you like Poke Assistant and the free services it provides, the best thing you can do to give back is to recommend it:. Dust Best Optional Your possible IVs against the best and worst.

Slide bar to view different levels. It uses following information: The species of your Pokemon. The CP of your Pokemon. The HP of your Pokemon. The Stardust cost to power-up your Pokemon.

Leave as "No" if you are sure you have never powered-up the Pokemon, else "Yes". Leave as "Optional" unless your team leader text indicated in which range the best stat is.

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We want the population of all random walks that never go broke. Using the former population for bankroll requirements and risk of ruin is mathematical nonsense.

Before that it was well known to the blackjack community, having appeared in papers by George C. It was surely known in mathematics before that as the general expression is important in financial math, and it can also be obtained from the Weiner process.

There is also an analytical short term ruin formula for risk of ruin in a finite number of hands. The confidence intervals in his graph have nothing to do with risk of ruin.

His graph is showing you a range of results assuming you can play through any drawdowns. IOW, if you lose your at some point, you can still keep playing, as if someone lent you additional funds.

The positive portion of the graph includes the times you lost your bankroll and then recovered to finish positive.

The risk of ruin formula as correctly given by Pokerdope counts these instances as a failure. A risk of ruin formula is not and cannot be based on confidence intervals.

Attempting to use confidence intervals to compute risk of ruin is a well known blunder. Here is a derivation of the risk of ruin formula Pokerdope gave which has been simplified to require nothing more than high school algebra:.

BTW, we developed a similar variance calculator on your site for tournaments which requires a different approach to risk of ruin..

It runs in R which is a platform for statistical computing which free and very easy to install. Here is a link to the script. Thank you for answering my question.

In your example of a 2. The risk of ruin and the necessary bankroll is calculated independently from the confidence interval.

BR is the required bankroll, R is the risk of ruin, Var is the variance which is the standard deviation squared, and WR is the winrate.

Using the example above with a win rate of 2. Do you have sophisticated guesses for the STD of 6-max five-card Omaha?

Maybe something like ? I noticed that the 20 random graphs in cg variance simulator almost always have one graph that is outside of the 2 std deviation line..

Is this a bug? Hello, anyone can explain what observed winrate is? We have winrate and observed winrate, any differences? Am confused if the BB is big bet or big blind.

I would assume it is big bet. The variance calc is complete non sense. It would be correct if online poker would work with correct and real life daily math, but since it doesnt, any calculation is a fail.

If your ture winrate is 2. Hi Mitch, these is the complete overview of my calculations. Especially since, even though I am a small winner in my games, I am perpetually running below EV and my actual winnings should be much higher than they currently are.

Do you assume normal distribution? I always see people on the forums: Help explaining this would be greatly appreciated.

Probability of running at or above observed win rate Probability of running below observed win rate You see, those tables were simulated at the distance over mil hands.

So the smaller is your sample the less chance for you will be to ruin. Could anybody explain me.. If I see this: Also HM2 has 2 different stats for std dev.

One is bb per hands and is as in examples. Another is just std dev. So the difference is like, eg, for midstack nlhe 65 vs 6. You may put in the description than you use std dev per hands.

Any chance you can create a simulator for live players? Thanks — this is just javascript, some mathematics and Google Charts https: First off this is excellent and clean!

Like what language you used and what sort of things went into making this. I currently am sending my Mental Game Coaching clients over to this website to learn about the true effect of variance in their game.

September 56 Comments By Primedope. Variance in numbers Below the first chart the Variance Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information: This number shows by how much your actual results will differ from the expected results on average.

Probability of loss after X hands: Probability of running at or above observed win rate …: If you entered an observed winrate , this number will show you the probability that you will experience a run at or above this winrate over the amount of hands.

Probability of running below observed win rate …: Detailed sample with downswings This chart simulates a single run over thousand up to 10 million hands with the winrate and standard deviation entered above.

Downswings in numbers The last section of the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on potential downswings. Is it my EV? You cannot change the IVs, not all Pokemon are born equal.

These IVs make small differences in the final power of a Pokemon. For example, the base attributes of a Charizard are , , This would be the "worst" Charizard available where all IVs are zero.

With max IVs, a Charizard would have , , Nonetheless, if having the absolute best Pokemon is critical to you, this tool will help you find the hidden IV values that your Pokemon has so you can decide to keep it or try for something better.

To level yourself up faster, and therefore gain access to levelling up your Pokemon further, check out XP Batching.

This tool uses the two following formulas and the inputs you provide about your Pokemon to attempt to identify its IVs:. Note that Pokemon have hidden levels and each level requires two "Power-Ups", this tool will display Level 4.

Too see how these stats can be used to your advantage in battle, check out the Best Attacker and Best Defender tools. Also check out Buddy Stats to help you choose your perfect Pokemon buddy and Stardust Strategy to help you with this rare resource.

Huge thanks to trainer JarydC for getting the javascript for this across the line at the 11th hour, and to Ciuff and Nylonee for getting the ball rolling.

There can be many possible IVs that would produce the Pokemon you have. You are able to narrow down the Pokemon by levelling it up OR evolving it, and submitting the new details to this tool.

After your first search, use the "Refine" button instead of "Calculate". The "Refine" process will automatically identify if you evolved the mon species changed or if you powered it up and the powered up field is now set to "Yes".

But only one at a time. So these are a bit of a pain. Niantic rounds up those formulas above to 10 if they ever score below.

If you like Poke Assistant and the free services it provides, the best thing you can do to give back is to recommend it:.

Dust Best Optional

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